Analysis
Pre Fed Meeting Discussion
In this episode
We discuss the data leading up to the Federal Reserve meeting, if they will make a move, and what the reaction will be.
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Show notes
We actually don’t think that a move is needed, a funds rate hold feels like the right (non)move. We know that inflation pressures are due to global oil supply and all other metrics are on good footing.
The part worth repeating
Even though markets are recently running towards the rate hike prediction, we still feel the data doesn’t warrant an increase. Our blog and video here.
Common questions
What is the reason for the sudden change in forecast?
Speculators. If you just look at the data, it’s actually slightly better than earlier in the summer. So we think media and market speculators are pushing this sudden prediction that there will be a hike instead of a hold.
Mentioned in this episode
- CNBC video, Thomas Simons