Market Updates
What factors are affecting the market right now, published every week by licensed Texas Brokers.
Mortgage rates follow inflation, and track the 10-year Treasury yield closely, when Treasury yields rise, mortgage rates typically follow. When we track markets and advise clients, it matters that we’re analyzing the data that actually drives pricing rather than the headline everyone else is watching.
Rates shown are industry averages, not quotes from J. Charles Lending. Our rates tend to run slightly below average. This is not a commitment to lend.
A Guide to Pre Qualify Yourself
If you are just starting out on your home buying journey, one of the first questions you should get answered is, Am I even…
PUBLISHED OCT 2026 ANALYSISThe Factors Needed for Rates to Drop
Last week we put together a Pre-Election game plan for home buyers. Over the weekend HousingWire’s Logan Mohtashami posted an article titled “Can Mortgage…
PUBLISHED OCT 2026 ANALYSISPre-Election Home Buying Game Plan: A How-To for Buyers and Realtors
Buyers can lock in today’s purchase price and still keep a shot at a lower rate if rates fall after Election Day on November…
PUBLISHED OCT 2026 ANALYSISInflation Came in Hot, But Mortgage Rates Fell: What It Means for Buyers
Inflation came in hotter than expected this week, and mortgage rates went down anyway. Average rates are roughly a quarter point lower than they…
PUBLISHED OCT 2026 ANALYSISWhy Mortgage Rates Rose After the Fed’s September Rate Hike
Key takeaways What happened after the September rate hike? The last two weeks have not been kind to the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and…
UPDATED OCT 2026 EXPLAINERThis Isn’t the 2021 Market: Why Today’s Buyers Have the Advantage
Short answer In 2021, low rates came with brutal competition: over-asking offers, no seller help, and buyers paying their own closing costs. Today the…
UPDATED OCT 2026 ANALYSISThe Fed Raised Rates. Here’s What It Means for Mortgage Rates
Market Update · September 25, 2026 By Charlie Braden, Broker/Owner, J. Charles Lending (NMLS #1283114) · Licensed TREC continuing-education instructor, Mortgage Markets Class The…
PUBLISHED SEP 2026 ANALYSISFed Hikes a Quarter Point – Here’s Why We Think It’s Actually Good News for Mortgage Rates
Fed Day happened yesterday, and the committee raised the federal funds rate a quarter point. Our honest first reaction: the data didn’t obviously call…
UPDATED OCT 2026 EXPLAINERFed Decision Day: Why Tomorrow’s Rate Move Matters Less Than You Think
Tomorrow marks the end of this month’s Fed meeting, and the market is laser-focused on one number. But before you brace for a mortgage…
UPDATED OCT 2026 ANALYSISYesterday’s Panic Subsides After CPI
PPI spooked markets, CPI calmed them, here’s what both reports mean for next week’s Fed decision and where mortgage rates go from here. These…
UPDATED OCT 2026 ANALYSISVantageScore vs. FICO: What the New GSE Policy Means for Your Mortgage
On September 3, 2026, FHFA Director Bill Pulte directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to approve every lender to use VantageScore, ending a limited…
UPDATED OCT 2026 ANALYSISAugust PPI and CPI Releases: What to Expect Thursday and Friday
The August Producer Price Index (PPI) is released tomorrow and could give us a preview of what to expect Friday when the August Consumer…
UPDATED OCT 2026 ANALYSISJobs Outperform – Dissecting the Numbers and What That Means for You
The raw numbers: Employment increased by 162,000 in August, well above the forecasted 56,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, and the labor…
PUBLISHED SEP 2026 EXPLAINERIs the Economy Actually as Bad as People Think? A Data-Driven Look
“I’m worried about the economy” is one of the most common objections we hear from prospective buyers right now and it’s completely understandable. But…
PUBLISHED SEP 2026 EXPLAINERIs It Actually a Good Time to Buy a Home? Here’s Why We Think So, And Why Buyers Are Still Hesitating
If you’ve been house-hunting for a while, you’ve probably noticed something: this is shaping up to be one of the strongest buyer’s markets we’ve…
UPDATED OCT 2026 ANALYSISFed Chairman Warsh’s First Jackson Hole Address: What It Actually Means for Mortgage Rates
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address today, marking his 100th day in the role. If you’re watching this hoping…
UPDATED OCT 2026 COMPARISONClosing Costs: What to Expect and What to Look For
You’ve done the work to get pre-approved for a loan. You’ve talked with your loan officer, figured out your budget, and decided how much…
PUBLISHED AUG 2026 EXPLAINERWhy Mortgage Rates are Holding
Mortgage rates are in a holding pattern, but why they are holding is interesting. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.65% this week, down slightly from…
UPDATED AUG 2026 EXPLAINERHow We Got Here: First half of 2026
Continuing our “How We Got Here” series on the market updates page, last time we looked at the 30-year fixed mortgage rate going back…
UPDATED OCT 2026 ANALYSISLow Down Payment Options
How much am I going to need for a down payment? This is one of the first questions that comes to mind for almost…
PUBLISHED AUG 2026