Analysis
Factors that could lead to lower rates
In this episode
Building off of our Pre-Election game plan, we discuss a HousingWire article laying out what needs to happen for rates to move lower before the holidays.
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Show notes
HousingWire’s Logan Mohtashami posted an article titled “Can Mortgage Rates Get Under 7% for the Holidays?” Logan says the 30-year fixed, which averaged 7.37% last week, could get back under 7% by the holidays. Our read hasn’t changed since last week’s pre-election game plan: if things break the right way around the November 3 midterms, rates could plausibly drop a quarter to three-eighths of a point in a short window. That’s a real move. It isn’t a point and a half.
The part worth repeating
We can’t predict what the market will do, but given certain things happening we can usually anticipate what will happen. But always hedge your bets, be happy with the deal you have now and if the market improves we can move with it.
Common questions
Why would Iran have an influence on rates?
Oil prices affect inflation. Oil prices have put all the pressure on rates this year. If a deal is struck, oil futures should go down leading to lower inflation expectations and rates.
Mentioned in this episode
- HousingWire, Can Mortgage rates go below 7% for the holidays, 10/17/2026
- Link to the related Resource Center article