Explainer

Is It Actually a Good Time to Buy a Home? Here’s Why We Think So, And Why Buyers Are Still Hesitating

PUBLISHED BY J. CHARLES LENDING TREC CE PROVIDER 11343-CEP READ 5 MIN

If you’ve been house-hunting for a while, you’ve probably noticed something: this is shaping up to be one of the strongest buyer’s markets we’ve seen in years. Sellers are accepting offers below asking price, covering closing costs, and negotiating in ways they simply weren’t willing to a few years ago.

And yet, a lot of qualified buyers are still sitting on the sidelines.

We hear it constantly from our realtor partners and directly from clients: people are nervous. Not because they can’t afford to buy, but because of fears that, once you break them down, mostly don’t hold up. Here are the three we’ve heard recently, and why they shouldn’t be keeping you out of the market.

“What if home prices crash like they did in 2008?”

This is the fear that’s born out of the doomers on social media, and it’s an understandable one if you lived through the last housing crash. But 2008 and today are not the same environment, and the difference comes down to a simple thing: how people financed their homes.

The 2008 crash was driven by a wave of adjustable-rate and exotic mortgages handed out with little to no qualification. When those loans reset, foreclosures spiked dramatically in a very short window. Today’s lending standards are far stricter, and current foreclosure filings are sitting close to their long-run average, nothing like the spike that triggered the last crash.

There’s also a structural difference working in homeowners’ favor. Anyone who bought or refinanced before rates climbed in 2022 is very likely sitting on a rate under 4%. That means if life circumstances force them to sell, they also have the option to rent the home out and still cover the mortgage, with room to spare for the renter. That safety net simply didn’t exist in 2008, and it’s a big reason we’re not seeing widespread distress selling among existing homeowners.

Where we are seeing some foreclosure activity is concentrated in new-construction homes bought with temporary rate buydowns and builder incentives. Auction.com reported that 45% of the current foreclosure filings were homes bought since 2023. Once those incentives expire and the true payment kicks in, some of those buyers are finding they can’t sell for what they paid, because builders can still offer new incentives on their next batch of homes, but an existing-home seller and their lender can’t manufacture the same discount. That’s a narrow, builder-incentive-driven issue, not evidence of a broader crash.

What we’re actually seeing across most of the market is a correction, prices settling back down from the unusually accelerated seller’s market of 2020–2022, not a collapse.

“Won’t mortgage rates go higher if the Fed raises rates?”

This is one of the most common misunderstandings we run into, and it’s worth clearing up because it affects real decisions.

The federal funds rate is the rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight, literally a one-day loan, and one consumers can’t even access directly. A 30-year mortgage is about as far from that as you can get. They’re priced off completely different curves.

The connection between the two is indirect: when the Fed raises rates, the goal is to bring down inflation. And when inflation cools, mortgage rates tend to benefit, just not immediately, and not automatically. So a Fed rate hike isn’t the mortgage-rate red flag many buyers assume it is. In some cases, it’s actually a step toward lower mortgage rates down the road, even though it feels counterintuitive in the moment.

It also helps to zoom out. Looking only at the last five years makes today’s rates feel painfully high compared to the 3% rates of late 2021. But looking back to the early 1970s, rates in the mid-6% to 7% range are far closer to the historical norm. The 2-3% rates of a few years ago were the anomaly.

Our advice: don’t buy based on .the rate itself. Buy based on the monthly payment you’re comfortable with, then work backward from there to figure out what purchase price fits. Treat today’s rate as your worst-case scenario going in, if it improves later, refinancing is always an option. Waiting for a “better rate” that may or may not arrive means potentially missing the buyer leverage that exists in the market right now.

“It’s just a big, scary decision.”

Sometimes the hesitation isn’t about numbers at all, it’s simply the weight of a major financial decision. And that’s completely valid. But it’s worth noting: this feeling doesn’t go away at a lower rate. Buying a home is a big decision whether you’re locking in at 3%, 5%, or 7%. At some point, if you’re ready, willing, and able, the decision has to be made on its own merits, not on the hope that it will someday feel smaller.

Why now, specifically, favors buyers

Beyond addressing the fears, there’s a practical case for acting now rather than waiting. Right now:

  • Many contracts are closing meaningfully under asking price
  • Sellers are offering concessions, including covering title costs
  • There are effectively two kinds of sellers in today’s market: those who have to sell and are motivated to negotiate, and those who can afford to wait, meaning buyers have real leverage with the first group

One more thing: talk to a person, not just a search bar

We know a lot of buyers are researching this exact question on Google and AI platforms before ever picking up the phone. That’s a smart first step but it has limits. The most valuable thing you can do if you’re on the fence is have an actual conversation with a mortgage professional who can run your specific numbers.

We’ve seen this make the difference firsthand. We recently worked with a buyer who had been holding back because he assumed mortgage insurance would cost him around $350 a month. In reality, it came out to about $97. That one piece of accurate information was the difference between staying on the sidelines and closing on a $735,000 home for roughly $30,000 out of pocket.

Sometimes the biggest obstacle isn’t affordability, it’s simply not having the right information yet. A quick conversation can tell you whether you’re ready now, or exactly what needs to happen before you are.

Common questions

What if I don’t plan on buying for a while?

Please still reach out. We don’t take a full application and pull credit on everyone we talk to. Sometimes a ten minute conversation can create a pathway to homeownership in the future.

So many sources say that the rates are “baked in”, what does that mean?

That’s their way of saying the market moves first. The federal reserve is reactionary in their actions. They rely on the data and reports in order to make decisions, so they are reacting to the market.

What is a good strategy for a first time home buyer?

Be realistic with your needs vs wants. During 2020-2021 we saw a lot of home buyers buy more than what they would have otherwise, so first time buyers didn’t buy the starter home, they could afford more. Now it’s best to figure out what you actually need right now, remember this is your first home not your forever home. Your first purchase gets you into home ownership.

If you’re weighing whether now is the right time to buy, let’s talk through your specific numbers. We’re happy to walk through your options with no pressure, just real answers.

This is the first hour of our TREC continuing education course.

Mortgage Markets Class — TREC course 39644-RECE — is 2 hours of approved elective credit for licensed Texas agents, taught live at your office. Same material, in depth, with your team's questions answered in the room.

See the course